Asia PR News

SINGAPORE, Aug. 29 /PRNewswire - AsiaNet/ –

- Monthly Service Blends Three Innovative Modeling Techniques to Deliver
Industry’s Most Frequent, Precise Price Forecast

ICIS, the world’s leading information provider to the chemical and oil
industry, today announced the launch of the Ethylene to Polyethylene monthly
report covering the Asian market, the third product chain included in ICIS
forecasting. In June, the first ICIS monthly forecasting report covering
benzene, styrene and polystyrene in the US market, was published. In July, the
ethylene to polyethylene product chain report for the US was launched.

“Due to continuing market volatility, there is a strong demand for price
forecasting of the Asian Ethylene to Polyethylene product chain in the
petrochemical industry,” said Allison Farone, ICIS Vice President – Americas.
“This specific monthly edition of ICIS forecasting will help traders and
purchasers minimize the risk in their decisions regarding the polyethylene
chain of products.”

Ethylene is a key feedstock for chemicals with more than 59 percent going
into PE production. PE is used in a wide variety of products including plastic
containers like buckets, luggage, storage tanks and furniture, as well as film
and plastic bags.

ICIS forecasting will report on Ethylene for Northeast Asia and major PE
grades such as HDPE Film, LDPE Film and LLDPE Film for the China and Southeast
Asia markets.

Quarterly industry reports cannot accurately account for market volatility,
attributed to an imbalance of supply conditions, thus creating a demand for the
monthly forecasts. Asian olefin spot markets have been flirting with 13-year
highs this year due to very tight supply. Ethylene prices climbed over 30% in
the past 6 months, hitting $1,420/tonne CFR Northeast Asia as end-users
scrambled to purchase spot cargoes during the seasonal peak of polyethylene
production. Accordingly, PE prices have been soaring in China due to ethylene
tight supply and plant turnarounds in the region. Overall, the average weekly
China CFR PE prices have risen by up to 18% from January to June.

“ICIS forecasting monthly reports enable industry suppliers, manufacturers,
and other stakeholders to more accurately forecast their investments,” Farone
added. “We are excited to launch a service that will support smart business
decisions.”

Continuing volatility of petrochemical prices throughout the past years has
exposed the weakness in current forecasting methodologies and highlighted the
need for a scientific rather than experiential approach to forecasting.
Scientific models create consistency, precision and eliminate reliance on the
judgment of key individuals. ICIS forecasting’s three modeling techniques are:

1. ICIS Market Sentiment Index:

A breakthrough in price forecasting, the innovative ICIS Market Sentiment
Index identifies events (e.g., plant closings, product shortages) previously
reported by ICIS that impact the behavior of market participants (in terms of
supply, demand and price). In short, it establishes the quantitative
relationship between a combination of multiple events and market reaction to
those events.

The Market Sentiment Index quantifies the combination of inflationary and
deflationary news stories reported by ICIS and expresses them as a number.
This number is positive in months where more inflationary than deflationary
events have occurred; it is negative where the combination of events is likely
to have a deflationary impact on sentiment.

2. Time Series:

Time series modeling analyzes patterns in historic prices and is
particularly useful in short-term forecasts.

3. Multivariate:

Multivariate pricing identifies relationships between prices and other
variables, including consumer and industrial indicators and trade and price
data.

ICIS forecasting’s methodology forecasts prices by incorporating the output
of the index in the forecasting model of each feedstock product (e.g.,
Ethylene, Polyethylene). The price generated by incorporating the Market
Sentiment Index is provided separately in the monthly report.

ICIS forecasting is completely independent from ICIS price reporting and is
based on statistical analysis of historical assessments plus textual analysis
of news files.

ICIS forecasting was developed in partnership with BMG DecisionCraft, a
consulting firm that uses advanced analytical tools to help companies increase
profitability and manage risk. Co-based in London and India, BMG DecisionCraft
clients include one of North America’s largest car manufacturers, one of the
United Kingdom’s largest lenders and one of Europe’s leading private equity
funds. Principals in London include Mark Giles, managing director, and Dr.
Stephen Price, director. Principals in India include Dr. P.R. Shukla,
co-founder of the Ahmedabad management school, Dr. Nilotpal Chakrvarti, head of
the Modeling Laboratory at Ahmedabad (India’s leading management school), and
Dr. Pankaj Chandra, head of Supply Chain Analytics at Ahmedabad.

A free sample of ICIS forecasting can be obtained at
http://www.icis.com/forecasting

Notes to Editors:

ICIS forecasting (http://www.icis.com/forecasting) is part of ICIS, the
world’s largest information provider for the chemical and oil industry. ICIS
operates with a team of more than 170 people in key markets around the world.
For more information about ICIS products and services, please visit
http://www.icis.com

Reed Business Information
ICIS is part of Reed Business Information (RBI), a division of Reed
Business and a member of Reed Elsevier plc, the world’s leading publisher and
information provider. RBI publishes more than 100 market leading publications,
directories and online services, and organizes many industry conferences and
awards. The RBI portfolio includes Computer Weekly, Caterer & Hotelkeeper,
Commercial Motor, Community Care, Estates Gazette, Farmers Weekly, Flight
International, New Scientist, Travel Weekly, Totaljobs.com, Caterer.com,
CWJobs, Estates Gazette Interactive (EGi), ATI (Air Transport Intelligence),
ICIS, Kellysearch, Kompass UK, and Bankers’ Almanac. For a full listing visit
http://www.reedbusiness.co.uk

Media Contact

Allison Farone
ICIS
3730 Kirby Drive, Suite 1030
Houston, TX 77098
Tel: +1 713-525-2618
Fax: +1 713-525-2659
Email: allison.farone@icis.com

SOURCE: ICIS